Quint Switching Filtered (QUINT)
Developed by Lewis Glenn · Pairs Rotation · Med-High Risk
Quint Switching Filtered extends Lewis Glenn's paired switching concept from a two-asset rotation to a five-asset universe, adding competitive depth to the momentum selection while maintaining the always-invested, no-cash design philosophy. Published on Glenn's Paired Switching research site, the strategy rotates among four equity-like assets and one bond instrument, holding the single strongest by trailing momentum at all times.
The five-asset universe comprises US large caps (SPY), US tech (QQQ), US mid caps (MDY), international developed equities (EFA), and long-term Treasuries (TLT). This expanded menu provides the momentum signal with more alternatives to compare, potentially identifying stronger trends than the binary SPY-versus-TLT comparison can detect. When US large caps are lagging, the strategy can hold tech, mid caps, or international stocks instead — capturing segment-specific trends that a single equity index might miss. When equities broadly weaken, TLT remains available as the flight-to-quality alternative.
The "filtered" component adds a quality gate to the selection process. Rather than blindly holding whichever asset has the highest raw momentum, the strategy applies a filter that confirms the selected asset is demonstrating genuine trend strength rather than a temporary rebound in a longer-term decline. This filtering reduces whipsaw entries into assets that show brief momentum spikes within broader downtrends.
The single-asset concentration means the portfolio carries the full volatility of its chosen holding with zero diversification. When the momentum ranking correctly identifies a strong, sustained trend — such as QQQ's leadership during tech rallies or TLT's appreciation during rate-cutting cycles — the concentrated positioning maximizes return capture. When the ranking is incorrect or the trend reverses shortly after selection, the lack of diversification amplifies the loss. This binary character makes Quint Switching a high-conviction approach best suited as a satellite allocation within broader portfolios or for investors with high risk tolerance who value decisive momentum exposure.
How It Works
Five-Asset Momentum Ranking
Each month, all five assets — SPY, QQQ, MDY, EFA, and TLT — are ranked by their trailing relative strength. The single highest-ranking asset receives the entire portfolio allocation. This concentrated selection maximizes exposure to whatever market segment is currently showing the strongest momentum, whether that segment is domestic equities, international equities, or government bonds.
The inclusion of three distinct US equity segments (large cap, tech/growth, and mid cap) alongside international stocks provides nuanced equity exposure that a single index cannot match. During technology-driven rallies, QQQ typically ranks first. During broad economic expansions, SPY or MDY may lead. During risk-off environments, TLT rises to the top as investors seek government bond safety. The diversity of the equity universe ensures the strategy can capture segment-specific momentum that might be diluted in a broad market index.
Trend Confirmation Filter
Before committing the portfolio to the top-ranked asset, the strategy applies a trend confirmation check to validate that the momentum signal reflects genuine trend strength rather than a temporary bounce within a longer-term decline. This filter examines whether the selected asset's price trajectory is consistent with a sustained uptrend, reducing the probability of entering a position that reverses shortly after selection.
The filter operates as a quality gate rather than a defensive mechanism — it does not shift the portfolio to cash or bonds. If the top-ranked asset fails the filter, the strategy examines the second-ranked asset, and so on down the ranking. The portfolio always holds one of the five assets; the filter merely ensures that the selected asset meets a minimum quality standard for trend strength before receiving the full allocation.
Always-Invested Design
Like its paired switching ancestor, Quint Switching maintains the always-invested philosophy — the portfolio never holds cash. This design maximizes capital efficiency by ensuring the portfolio is always earning the return of at least one asset class. During equity bull markets, the concentrated equity exposure captures strong trending moves. During flight-to-quality episodes, TLT provides positive returns as government bond prices rise.
The risk of this always-invested approach materializes during periods when all five assets decline simultaneously — a scenario that, while rare, can occur during inflationary bear markets where both equities and bonds suffer. During the 2022 rate shock, for example, all four equity segments and TLT declined simultaneously, leaving the strategy with no profitable option in its universe. These periods represent the unavoidable cost of the no-cash design — the insurance premium that cash-holding strategies pay through missed returns during bull markets is instead paid by concentrated-loss exposure during universal-decline events.
Explore Quint Switching Filtered (QUINT)
See the full backtest across 18 years of market data, or run your own what-if scenarios by adjusting all research parameters.