Knowledge Hub

Strategy guides, research insights, and everything you need to invest wiser.

Strategy Guides

What Is Tactical Asset Allocation?

Learn how tactical asset allocation uses systematic rules and momentum signals to protect portfolios and rotate into stronger assets.

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Dual Momentum Explained: GEM, ADM, and Beyond

Deep dive into dual momentum investing: how GEM combines relative and absolute momentum using SPY, VEU, and AGG, and how ADM accelerates signals with…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Understanding Defensive Asset Allocation (DAA/HAA)

How DAA and HAA use canary assets and composite momentum to dynamically shift between offensive and defensive positions, with full strategy mechanics…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

How to Build a Multi-Strategy Portfolio

Learn how to combine momentum, macro, sector, and defensive strategies into a diversified portfolio that reduces drawdowns and survives any market reg…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

The Case for Trend Following in Retirement Portfolios

Sequence of returns risk can devastate retirement savings. Learn how trend following and tactical allocation protect retirees when it matters most.

11 min read
How It Works

How Portfoliowiser Backtests Work

Understand how Portfoliowiser runs historical backtests, what the results show, and the critical limitations every investor must know before acting on…

10 min read
How It Works

Monthly Rebalancing: What to Do on Signal Day

Learn exactly what to do on rebalancing signal day — from checking your dashboard to executing trades — in under 15 minutes per month.

10 min read
How It Works

From Quiz to Portfolio: How Find My Portfolio Works

Take a 5-question quiz and get a personalised tactical portfolio recommendation backed by real backtest data. No account required.

9 min read
Research

Momentum vs. Mean Reversion: What the Research Shows

Explore the academic evidence behind momentum and mean reversion investing. Learn how TAA strategies use these forces across different time horizons.

10 min read
Research

Does Tactical Allocation Beat Buy-and-Hold?

TAA vs buy-and-hold: what the evidence actually shows. Risk-adjusted returns, major crash analysis, and when each approach wins.

11 min read
Research

Understanding Risk-Adjusted Returns: Sharpe, Sortino, and Calmar

Learn how Sharpe, Sortino, and Calmar ratios measure risk-adjusted returns, why raw CAGR can be misleading, and how to use these metrics to compare ta…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

What Is Sector Rotation and How Does It Work?

Discover how sector rotation strategies shift capital between industry sectors based on momentum and economic cycles to improve portfolio returns.

10 min read
Research

The Role of Gold in Tactical Portfolios

Explore why gold is a core component of tactical asset allocation, how it behaves during crises, and how TAA strategies use gold ETFs for portfolio pr…

9 min read
How It Works

How to Read an Equity Curve

Learn how to interpret equity curves, spot drawdowns, evaluate consistency, and use visual analysis to compare tactical allocation strategies effectiv…

8 min read
Strategy Guides

Volatility Targeting: Sizing Positions by Risk

Learn how volatility targeting works, why sizing positions by risk improves portfolio stability, and how tactical strategies use vol-targeting for bet…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Tax-Efficient Tactical Investing

Learn how to minimise the tax impact of tactical asset allocation through account placement, holding periods, loss harvesting, and smart rebalancing s…

9 min read
Research

Correlation and Why It Matters for Portfolio Construction

Understand how asset correlation drives portfolio diversification, why correlations change during crises, and how to build portfolios that hold up whe…

10 min read
How It Works

ETFs for Tactical Allocation: A Selection Guide

A practical guide to selecting ETFs for tactical asset allocation — covering equity, bond, commodity, and defensive ETFs with key criteria for TAA sui…

10 min read
Research

What Happens During a Market Crash: Anatomy of a Drawdown

Explore the phases of a market crash — from complacency to panic to recovery — and learn how tactical allocation strategies respond to protect capital…

11 min read
How It Works

From Paper Portfolio to Real Money: Implementation Guide

A step-by-step guide to implementing tactical asset allocation with real money — covering brokerage setup, execution, rebalancing, tracking, and commo…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Canary Signals: The Early Warning System for Your Portfolio

Learn how canary asset allocation strategies like DAA, VAA, and BAA use sentinel assets to detect market risk before it hits your portfolio.

11 min read
Strategy Guides

Risk Parity Explained: Balancing Your Portfolio by Risk, Not Dollars

Understand how risk parity portfolio construction allocates by volatility rather than capital, and why it creates more balanced portfolios than tradit…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Macro Timing Strategies: Using Economic Data to Navigate Markets

How macro-driven tactical allocation strategies use unemployment, industrial production, yield curves, and leading indicators to position portfolios a…

11 min read
Research

Sell in May and Seasonal Investing: Does Calendar Timing Work?

Explore whether seasonal investing strategies like Sell in May actually work, backed by decades of market data and academic research.

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Beyond 60/40: Smarter Alternatives to the Classic Portfolio

Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, and how tactical strategies like All Weather, Golden Butterfly, and momentum-based approa…

11 min read
Strategy Guides

Pairs Rotation: The Simplest Tactical Strategy You Can Follow

How pairs rotation works: a two-asset race between SPY and TLT using 3-month relative strength, always fully invested, with no defensive position or c…

10 min read
Research

Multi-Factor Investing: Beyond Simple Momentum

How multi-factor strategies like Flexible Asset Allocation and Elastic Asset Allocation combine momentum, volatility, and correlation for smarter port…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Breadth Momentum: How Market Breadth Protects Your Portfolio

Learn how protective asset allocation strategies use market breadth — the number of assets in uptrends — to scale defensive allocations and manage por…

10 min read
Research

Adaptive Allocation: Strategies That Evolve with the Market

How adaptive asset allocation strategies dynamically adjust their parameters and weights based on changing market conditions, volatility, and correlat…

11 min read
How It Works

How to Blend Investment Strategies for a Smoother Ride

A practical guide to combining multiple tactical asset allocation strategies into a blended portfolio that reduces risk and smooths returns across mar…

10 min read
How It Works

What Is Portfolio Rebalancing and Why Does It Matter?

Learn what portfolio rebalancing is, when to rebalance, and how tactical rebalancing differs from calendar-based approaches to improve risk-adjusted r…

9 min read
Research

Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: What Works Better?

Compare dollar-cost averaging and lump sum investing with real data. Learn when each approach wins and how tactical allocation changes the calculation…

9 min read
How It Works

What Is Maximum Drawdown and Why Should You Care?

Understand maximum drawdown, the most important risk metric most investors ignore. Learn how to measure it, why it matters, and how tactical strategie…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

How to Protect Your Portfolio During a Recession

Learn proven strategies to protect your investment portfolio during a recession, from tactical allocation to defensive positioning and safe haven asse…

10 min read
How It Works

What Is a Sharpe Ratio? A Plain-English Guide

The Sharpe ratio explained in simple terms. Learn how to use it to compare investments, what counts as a good Sharpe ratio, and why it matters for you…

8 min read
Strategy Guides

Asset Allocation by Age: Why the Old Rules Don't Work

The 100 minus your age rule is outdated. Learn why age-based allocation fails and how tactical strategies provide better risk management at every life…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

What Are Safe Haven Assets? A Complete Guide

Discover what safe haven assets are, how they protect portfolios during crises, and why tactical strategies use dynamic safe haven selection for bette…

9 min read
Research

How Interest Rates Affect Your Portfolio

Understand how rising and falling interest rates impact stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate — and how tactical strategies adapt to changing rate envi…

10 min read
Research

The Power of Compounding: Why Avoiding Losses Matters More Than Chasing Gains

Discover why avoiding large losses is mathematically more important than chasing high returns. Learn how compounding works and why drawdown control dr…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Bond Ladder vs. Bond ETFs for Tactical Investors

Compare bond ladders and bond ETFs for tactical portfolios. Learn the trade-offs in liquidity, cost, and flexibility, and which approach works best wi…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Ivy Portfolio Explained: The Endowment Approach for Individual Investors

Learn how the Ivy Portfolio replicates Harvard and Yale endowment strategies using five ETFs, and how tactical enhancements can improve its risk-adjus…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's All-Weather Strategy

Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio allocates 25% each to SPY, TLT, GLD, and SHY — designed to perform in any economic environment with minimal mainten…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio: How It Works and Tactical Improvements

Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio uses risk parity across 6 ETFs — SPY, EFA, TLT, IEF, GLD, DBC — to deliver stable returns across all economic enviro…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio: A Balanced Alternative

The Golden Butterfly allocates 20% each to SPY, IWN, TLT, SHY, and GLD — combining large-cap, small-cap value, bonds, and gold for balanced all-weathe…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Meb Faber's GTAA: Global Tactical Asset Allocation

Learn how Meb Faber's GTAA strategy uses trend following across global asset classes to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns with dramatically reduced…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Accelerating Dual Momentum (ADM): Faster Signals, Better Protection

ADM races SPY vs SCZ using a composite of 1, 3, and 6-month returns for faster trend detection. When the winner turns negative, the portfolio moves en…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Vigilant Asset Allocation (VAA): Maximum Protection Strategy

Understand Vigilant Asset Allocation — Wouter Keller's most defensive tactical strategy that uses broad momentum screening to protect capital during m…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Bold Asset Allocation (BAA): Balancing Offense and Defense

BAA uses 4 canary assets and SMA-ratio momentum to rotate across a 12-asset offensive universe or 7-asset defensive universe, in both Balanced and Agg…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Lethargic Asset Allocation (LAA): The Low-Maintenance Tactical Strategy

LAA holds QQQ, IWD, GLD, IEF at 25% each with only the QQQ position tactical — switching to SHY when unemployment and SPY trend both signal bearish co…

9 min read
Research

CAPE Ratio Investing: Using Valuation in Tactical Allocation

Learn how the CAPE ratio measures long-term market valuation, what it predicts about future returns, and how tactical strategies incorporate valuation…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Tactical vs. Strategic Asset Allocation: What's the Difference?

Understand the key differences between tactical and strategic asset allocation, when each approach works best, and how combining them produces stronge…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

7 Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies Compared

Compare the top tactical asset allocation strategies side by side — GEM, DAA, VAA, BAA, GTAA, ADM, and HAA — with real performance data and clear guid…

11 min read
Research

Tactical Asset Allocation Performance: What the Data Shows

Examine real tactical asset allocation performance data across bull markets, bear markets, and full cycles. Separating evidence from marketing claims.

11 min read
How It Works

Tactical Asset Allocation with ETFs: A Complete Implementation Guide

A practical guide to implementing tactical asset allocation with ETFs — covering selection criteria, the core toolkit, execution workflow, and common…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Tactical Asset Allocation Models: From Simple to Advanced

Explore the full spectrum of tactical asset allocation models — from a single moving average to multi-strategy blends — and find the right complexity…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Tactical Asset Allocation for Retirement: Protecting What You've Built

Learn why tactical asset allocation is especially critical for retirees, how it addresses sequence-of-returns risk, and which strategies best protect…

10 min read
How It Works

Tactical Asset Allocation in Action: 5 Portfolio Walkthroughs

See tactical asset allocation in practice through 5 complete portfolio examples — from conservative retiree to aggressive growth — with specific ETFs,…

11 min read
Research

SMA vs. EMA: Which Moving Average Works Better for Tactical Allocation?

Compare simple and exponential moving averages for tactical investing. How each works, where each has the edge, and why the choice matters less than m…

9 min read
Research

Absolute vs. Relative Momentum: When to Use Each

Understand the two types of momentum that drive tactical allocation — absolute (is it going up?) and relative (is it the strongest?) — and why the bes…

9 min read
Research

Backtesting Pitfalls: 7 Mistakes That Make Strategies Look Better Than They Are

Learn the 7 most common backtesting mistakes that inflate strategy performance — from overfitting to cherry-picked dates — and how to evaluate any bac…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Growth-Trend Timing: Using Economic Data as a Market Signal

Learn how growth-trend timing strategies use industrial production, unemployment, and other economic indicators alongside price trends to make tactica…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Global Growth Cycle: OECD Data Meets Tactical Allocation

Discover how the Global Growth Cycle strategy uses OECD leading indicators to position portfolios ahead of economic turning points for better risk-adj…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Tactical Bond Rotation: Fixed Income Momentum Strategies

Learn how tactical bond rotation uses momentum signals to rotate between bond types, improving returns and avoiding the deep losses that devastated bo…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

The Tactical Permanent Portfolio: Adding Trend Filters to an All-Weather Classic

TPP applies a 10-month SMA filter to only the equity slice of the Permanent Portfolio. SPY, GLD, TLT, and SHY at 25% each — only SPY is tactical.

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Resilient Asset Allocation: Building Strategies That Survive Any Market

Explore Resilient Asset Allocation (RAA) and Robust Asset Allocation — strategies that combine fixed defensive rules with adaptive sizing for all-weat…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Classical and Adaptive Asset Allocation: Markowitz Meets Momentum

Learn how Classical Asset Allocation (CAA) and Adaptive Asset Allocation (AAA) combine Markowitz optimization with tactical momentum to create dynamic…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Mama Bear and Papa Bear: Multi-Asset Momentum Portfolios

Explore the Mama Bear and Papa Bear momentum portfolios — practical multi-asset strategies that combine broad diversification with systematic momentum…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Gold Cross-Asset Momentum: A Tactical Approach to Precious Metals

Learn how the Gold Cross-Asset Momentum strategy uses multi-asset signals to time gold exposure, capturing gold's protective benefits while avoiding i…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Composite Dual Momentum and Multi-Lookback Strategies

Explore how Composite Dual Momentum, Dual Momentum Top 6, and ADM Inflation Protected extend the dual momentum framework with faster signals and broad…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Quint Switching and Multi-Pair Rotation Strategies

Learn how Quint Switching, Piard Seasonal Rotation, and Defense First extend the simple pairs rotation concept into more sophisticated multi-pair tact…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Risk Parity with Trend Filters: Combining Equal Risk with Tactical Signals

Learn how risk parity trend strategies combine inverse-volatility weighting with moving average filters to build portfolios that balance risk and adap…

9 min read
Strategy Guides

Yield Curve Strategies: How Bond Market Signals Drive Tactical Allocation

Discover how yield curve signals — including inversions and slope changes — can be used alongside price trends to build more informed tactical allocat…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Dividend Growth in Tactical Portfolios

Learn how dividend-focused tactical strategies combine income generation with momentum signals, providing both yield and downside protection in a sing…

9 min read
How It Works

PortfolioWiser Meta Strategies: Pre-Built Tactical Portfolios Explained

Explore PortfolioWiser's proprietary meta strategies — pre-built, multi-signal tactical portfolios designed for different investor profiles and market…

10 min read
How It Works

Inside the 5-Way Tactical Blend: How PortfolioWiser Builds Multi-Strategy Portfolios

See how PortfolioWiser constructs its flagship 5-Way Tactical Blend by combining trend, macro, international, sector, and defensive strategies into a…

10 min read
How It Works

How to Start Tactical Investing with $10,000

A practical step-by-step guide to starting tactical asset allocation with a small portfolio — including strategy selection, ETF choices, brokerage set…

9 min read
Research

Tail Risk and Black Swans: Can Tactical Allocation Protect You?

Understand tail risk, why extreme market events are more common than models predict, and how tactical strategies provide real-world protection against…

10 min read
Research

Regime Detection: How to Know When the Market Has Changed

Learn how to identify market regime changes — from bull to bear, from low to high volatility — and how tactical strategies detect and adapt to these s…

10 min read
Research

Rules-Based Investing: How Removing Emotion Improves Returns

Understand why systematic, rules-based investing consistently outperforms discretionary decision-making — and how to build an investment process that…

9 min read
Research

The Future of Tactical Investing: What's Next

Explore the trends shaping the future of tactical asset allocation — from alternative data to machine learning to the democratization of institutional…

9 min read
Research

How Tactical Strategies Performed During the 2008 Financial Crisis

A detailed case study of how tactical asset allocation strategies behaved during the 2008 financial crisis — with strategy-by-strategy data, timelines…

11 min read
Research

2020 COVID Crash: What Tactical Allocation Got Right and Wrong

An honest assessment of how tactical strategies handled the fastest bear market in history — what worked, what didn't, and why the speed of the declin…

10 min read
Research

The 2022 Rate Shock: Why 60/40 Failed and Tactical Allocation Adapted

A case study of the 2022 rate shock — the year that broke the 60/40 portfolio and validated tactical strategies with dynamic defensive asset selection…

11 min read
Research

What Is Momentum Investing?

Understand momentum investing — the most robust anomaly in financial markets. Learn how it works, why it persists, and how tactical strategies harness…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

How to Invest During High Inflation: A Tactical Framework

Learn how to position your portfolio during inflationary periods using tactical allocation — which assets protect purchasing power and which suffer mo…

10 min read
Research

Does Market Timing Work? What the Evidence Actually Shows

The market timing debate settled with evidence. Learn why discretionary timing fails, why systematic tactical allocation is fundamentally different, a…

10 min read
Research

What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates: Positioning Your Portfolio

Understand how Federal Reserve rate cuts affect stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate — and how tactical strategies position automatically for rate cyc…

10 min read
Research

What Is Trend Following?

Learn how trend following works, why asset class trends persist, and how simple moving average rules have reduced portfolio drawdowns for over a centu…

10 min read
How It Works

Do You Need a Financial Advisor? The Case for Rules-Based Alternatives

Compare the value of a traditional financial advisor against systematic, rules-based tactical allocation — costs, performance, behavioral support, and…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

FIRE and Tactical Allocation: Accelerating Financial Independence

Learn how tactical asset allocation can accelerate your path to financial independence by protecting compounding during the critical accumulation year…

9 min read
How It Works

How Often Should You Rebalance Your Portfolio?

Monthly, quarterly, or annually? Learn what research shows about optimal rebalancing frequency and why tactical strategies use monthly signals.

9 min read
Research

Investing During Geopolitical Uncertainty: What History Teaches

How markets have responded to wars, trade conflicts, and political crises — and how tactical allocation provides systematic protection during geopolit…

10 min read
How It Works

Tactical Allocation vs. Robo-Advisors: What You Actually Get

Compare tactical asset allocation with robo-advisors on strategy, performance, cost, and drawdown protection. Understand what each approach actually d…

9 min read
Research

Why Investors Sell at the Bottom: The Psychology of Panic

Understand the psychological forces that drive investors to sell at the worst possible moment — and how systematic, rules-based strategies prevent the…

10 min read
Research

FOMO in Investing: How Fear of Missing Out Destroys Returns

Learn how FOMO — fear of missing out — drives investors into overvalued assets, concentrated positions, and strategy abandonment at exactly the wrong…

9 min read
Research

FOML: Fear of Missing Losses and the Cost of Sitting in Cash

Understand FOML — the paralyzing fear of investing that keeps money in cash. Learn what sitting on the sidelines actually costs and how to overcome an…

9 min read
Research

Recency Bias: Why Last Year's Best Strategy Loses Next Year

Learn how recency bias causes investors to chase recent winners, abandon working strategies, and systematically buy high and sell low.

9 min read
Research

The Disposition Effect: Why We Hold Losers and Sell Winners

Understand the disposition effect — the tendency to sell winning investments too early and hold losing ones too long — and how it systematically erode…

9 min read
Research

Anchoring Bias: How Reference Points Sabotage Your Portfolio

Learn how anchoring bias — fixating on purchase prices, past highs, and arbitrary targets — leads to poor investment decisions and how systematic rule…

9 min read
Research

Every Behavioral Bias That Hurts Your Portfolio — And How to Beat Them

A comprehensive guide to the cognitive biases that destroy investment returns — loss aversion, overconfidence, herd behavior, and more — with systemat…

12 min read
How It Works

SPY vs VOO vs VTI: Which S&P 500 ETF Should You Choose?

Compare SPY, VOO, and VTI side by side — expense ratios, tracking, liquidity, and which one works best for different investing approaches including ta…

9 min read
How It Works

The Complete Guide to ETF Investing

Everything you need to know about ETF investing — how ETFs work, types of ETFs, selection criteria, tax advantages, and how to build a portfolio with…

12 min read
How It Works

ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Which Is Better for Your Portfolio?

Compare ETFs and mutual funds on cost, tax efficiency, trading flexibility, and performance — and understand why ETFs are the preferred vehicle for ta…

9 min read
Research

Active vs Passive Investing: The Third Option Nobody Talks About

The active vs passive debate has a blind spot. Tactical asset allocation offers a third path — systematic, rules-based, and evidence-backed.

10 min read
Research

What Is a Bear Market? History, Phases, and How to Prepare

Understand bear markets — their definition, historical patterns, typical phases, and how tactical allocation strategies provide systematic protection…

10 min read
Research

What Is Diversification? Why It Matters and When It Fails

Learn what portfolio diversification really means, why it reduces risk, when it breaks down during crises, and how tactical strategies address its lim…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Best ETFs for Retirement Portfolios

A curated guide to the best ETFs for retirement — covering equity, bond, income, and defensive ETFs with specific recommendations for tactical retirem…

10 min read
Strategy Guides

Best Dividend ETFs: Yield, Growth, and Tactical Considerations

Compare the best dividend ETFs — SCHD, VIG, VYM, HDV, and DGRO — and learn how tactical strategies use dividend and growth rotation to improve risk-ad…

9 min read
Research

Growth vs Value Investing: What the Evidence Shows

Examine the growth versus value debate with historical data. Learn how each style performs across market cycles and how tactical rotation captures the…

10 min read
How It Works

How to Invest $100,000: A Strategic Framework

A practical framework for investing $100,000 — covering asset allocation, account placement, implementation strategy, and how tactical approaches can…

10 min read
Investor Psychology

Action Bias: Why Doing Nothing Is the Hardest Trade

Action bias drives investors to trade when standing pat would produce better results. Learn how this cognitive trap erodes returns and how systematic…

11 min read
Investor Psychology

The Availability Heuristic: When Recent Headlines Drive Investment Decisions

The availability heuristic causes investors to overweight vivid, recent information when making portfolio decisions. Learn how this bias distorts risk…

11 min read
Investor Psychology

Confirmation Bias: How Investors See What They Want to See

Confirmation bias leads investors to seek evidence supporting existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory data. Learn how systematic investing neutr…

11 min read
Investor Psychology

Hindsight Bias: Why Every Crash Looks Obvious in Retrospect

Hindsight bias makes past events seem predictable, leading investors to overestimate their forecasting ability. Learn how this distorts investment dec…

11 min read
Investor Psychology

Hyperbolic Discounting: The Short-Term Trap That Derails Long-Term Wealth

Hyperbolic discounting is our tendency to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger future ones. Learn how this bias undermines investment discipli…

11 min read
Investor Psychology

The Illusion of Explanatory Depth: When Investors Think They Understand More Than They Do

We believe we understand complex market dynamics better than we actually do. Learn how this cognitive illusion affects investment decisions.

11 min read
Investor Psychology

The Illusion of Validity: Overconfidence in Investment Predictions

The illusion of validity makes us overconfident in our predictions even when evidence is weak. Learn how systematic investing addresses it.

11 min read
Investor Psychology

Myopic Loss Aversion: When Short-Term Focus Destroys Long-Term Returns

Myopic loss aversion combines loss aversion with short-term evaluation, causing investors to take far less risk than needed.

11 min read
Investor Psychology

Negativity Bias: Why Bad News Hits Harder Than Good News

Negativity bias causes adverse events to have a disproportionate impact on our psychology and decisions. Learn how this affects investment behavior.

11 min read
Investor Psychology

Optimism Bias: The Hidden Risk of Perpetual Bullishness

Optimism bias causes investors to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate risks. Learn how systematic risk management addresses it.

11 min read
Investor Psychology

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: When Past Losses Prevent Future Gains

The sunk cost fallacy causes investors to hold losing positions because of what they have already invested. Learn how systematic investing prevents it…

11 min read
Investor Psychology

Zero Risk Bias: The Dangerous Pursuit of Certainty in an Uncertain World

Zero risk bias is our preference for eliminating risk entirely over reducing it substantially. Learn how this undermines investment outcomes.

11 min read
Glossary

12-Month Relative Strength: How Strategies Pick the Strongest Asset

Relative strength compares trailing returns across assets to identify the momentum leader. Learn how this foundational signal works and which strategi…

7 min read
Glossary

Multi-Period Momentum Composites: 13612U and 13612W Explained

The 13612U and 13612W composites blend 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns into a single momentum score. Learn how these formulas work and why they outperfo…

7 min read
Glossary

SMA Ratio: Measuring Trend Strength Above the Moving Average

The SMA ratio compares an asset's price to its simple moving average, measuring how far above or below trend it sits. Learn how strategies use this fo…

6 min read
Glossary

Accelerating Momentum: Faster Trend Detection Through Multi-Frequency Blending

Accelerating momentum blends 1, 3, and 6-month returns for faster signal response than 12-month lookbacks. Learn how ADM uses this and why speed matte…

6 min read
Glossary

Absolute Momentum: The Bear Market Filter That Compares Returns to Risk-Free Rates

Absolute momentum checks whether an asset's return exceeds the risk-free rate before allocating capital. Learn how this protection mechanism works acr…

7 min read
Glossary

SMA Trend Filter: The Moving Average Gate for Downtrend Protection

The SMA trend filter excludes assets trading below their moving average, preventing strategies from holding positions in confirmed downtrends.

6 min read
Glossary

Canary Universe: Using Sentinel Assets for Early Crash Detection

The canary universe concept uses dedicated sentinel assets — separate from the portfolio — to detect market stress before it reaches core holdings.

7 min read
Glossary

Breadth Momentum: Graduated Protection Based on How Many Assets Are Trending

Breadth momentum counts how many assets in a universe are in uptrends and scales defensive allocation proportionally. Learn how this graduated approac…

7 min read
Glossary

Layered Protection: Combining Multiple Independent Signals for Defense

Layered protection requires multiple independent signals to agree before triggering defensive action, virtually eliminating false alarms.

6 min read
Glossary

Faber Composite: Multi-Period Averaging for Robust Sector and Asset Ranking

The Faber composite averages returns across 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months for a comprehensive momentum ranking. Learn how it differs from 13612U.

6 min read
Glossary

EAA Elasticity Score: Correlation-Adjusted Momentum Ranking

The elasticity score multiplies return by a diversification factor, penalizing assets that move in lockstep with the portfolio. Learn how this multi-d…

7 min read
Glossary

FAA Multi-Factor Ranking: Combining Return, Volatility, and Correlation

Flexible Asset Allocation ranks assets across three dimensions — return, volatility, and correlation — with configurable weights. Learn how multi-fact…

6 min read
Glossary

Equal Weight vs Score-Proportional Allocation

Equal weight gives every selected asset the same allocation. Score-proportional weights by conviction. Learn the trade-offs and which strategies use e…

6 min read
Glossary

Binary Switching: All-or-Nothing Allocation Between Two States

Binary switching commits 100% of the portfolio to a single asset — either the momentum winner or the defensive fallback. Learn the decisive logic behi…

6 min read
Glossary

Paired Switching: Head-to-Head Asset Rotation

Paired switching rotates between two complementary assets based on which shows stronger recent momentum. Learn how this elegant concept drives several…

6 min read
Glossary

Minimum Variance Optimization: Weighting for Lowest Portfolio Volatility

Minimum variance optimization calculates portfolio weights that minimize expected volatility using the covariance structure of selected assets.

6 min read
Glossary

Inverse Volatility Weighting: Equalizing Risk Contribution Across Positions

Inverse volatility weighting allocates more capital to lower-volatility assets, ensuring each position contributes roughly equal risk to the portfolio…

6 min read
Glossary

Hierarchical Risk Parity: Cluster-Based Allocation for Better Diversification

HRP uses hierarchical clustering to group correlated assets before allocating, avoiding the instability problems of traditional optimization methods.

6 min read
Glossary

Risk-On vs Risk-Off: Understanding the Two Portfolio States

Every tactical strategy alternates between risk-on (growth-seeking) and risk-off (capital-preserving) states. Learn what triggers each state and what…

6 min read
Glossary

Defensive Assets: BIL, SHY, IEF, TLT — Which Safe Haven and When

Different defensive assets serve different purposes in tactical strategies. Learn the role of each Treasury ETF and when strategies choose one over an…

7 min read
Glossary

Lookback Period and Turnover: How Parameter Choices Affect Your Portfolio

The lookback period determines how far back a strategy looks for momentum signals. Shorter lookbacks react faster but generate more trades. Learn the…

6 min read
Monthly Review

June 2026 Strategy Review: Commodity Correction Tests Systematic Discipline

June 2026 saw a commodity and gold correction that hit 29 of 57 strategies. Analysis of actual holdings, macro drivers, and what signals say for July.

12 min
Monthly Review

July 2026 Strategy Review: The Commodity Reversal Reshuffles the Leaderboard

July 2026 reversed June's narrative: commodity strategies surged while equity momentum collapsed. See who won, who lost, and why defensive signals are…

10 min